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2011 Oscar Predictions: Snap predictions on nomination day

Jason Woods
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Anyone who doesn’t follow the Oscars or film awards closely doesn’t know–this isn’t one award show–but the final in a season. It’s the World Series. The NBA Finals. The culmination of campaigning and hard work far beyond just the initial performance.

So front-runners today may not be when the Oscar is handed out in the next month. But for now, here’s my snap judgements on who takes home the Gold February 27.

Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech

The Academy works in some pretty obvious ways. The screenplay and picture race often, though not always, work out in tandem. And since “The King’s Speech” is one of two front-runners for Best Picture, it’s a lock to win this award.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network

Aaron Sorkin has had a place cleared on his shelf for this award for months; there’s no shot he doesn’t take it home.

Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter

Amy Adams and Melissa Leo have been front-runners for this award, and Leo took home the Golden Globe. But Carter will ride the “King’s Speech” wave to win this won, her first in an illustrious career.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale

Bale, long considered an A-list actor, will take home the gold on his first nomination. The only true competition he may see is from Geoffrey Rush of “The King’s Speech.”

Best Actress: Natalie Portman

Likely the least secure award, Portman faces stiff competition from Benning and Academy-favorite Nicole Kidman. But at this moment, it’s Portman’s to lose.

Best Actor: Colin Firth

Firth is solidly the front-runner for this award, after dominating critics awards for several months. The only hiccup could be Javier Bardem’s surprise nomination, and his support from some big sources (Julia Roberts), which could allow him to steal the award for “Biutiful.”

Best Director: David Fincher

“The Social Network” was one of the years most poignant and beautifully prodcued films, on multiple levels, from writing, acting, score, all the way to director. In terms of this film’s production, Fincher will just be another cog in its sweep, leading to the ultimate…

Best Picture: The Social Network

Fincher and Sorkin have produced a masterpiece, which some say will be a defining film of our generation. Though “The King’s Speech” could compete for this award, there is little chance it takes it, a’la “Crash.”


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Jason Woods
Jason Woods is a Blast staff writer

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8 Responses

  1. No surprises here really other than Christopher Nolan getting snubbed in the Best Director category. I thought The Social Network was severely overrated and got most of its attention due to the subject matter rather than the movie as a whole. I’m a big David Fincher fan and he’s never let me down. Good movie but it didn’t make my Top Ten. I thought Howl was by far the best movie of the year with its combination of animation, acting (James Franco as Allen Ginsberg), and cinematography. You can check out my list on my artist’s blog at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2010/12/top-10-movie-picks-of-2010.html

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  3. If Inception doesn’t win best ORIGINAL screenplay….. it’s because someone really has it for Nolan. That’s the only possible reason.

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  4. I just saw Black Swan…I’m giving Natalie the Oscar. It’s a little gold statue, and it would be like giving Prometheus a zippo lighter for giving fire to mankind.

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  5. I’m not a fan of most of the nominated films. Not that they didn’t have their moments of pleasure, but on the whole, they were too flawed to fully enjoy or want to see again. Like you, “The Social Network” was definitely on my personal list of favorite 2010 films, but “Winter’s Bone” is my pick out of the ten nominated. (However, like you, I think “The Social Network” will take the prize. There’s a chance for “The King’s Speech” — a movie I at moments enjoyed but thought was too full of dead, unnecessary sequences that were done better elsewhere.)
    Here I posted my predictions and personal picks for this year’s Oscars:
    http://shootthecritic.com/features/academy_award_nominees_2011.

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  6. If you asked me last week, I’d have said The Social Network wins Picture and Director. This week, after it won the PGA and Andrew Garfield missed out on a nomination for TSN (showing a weakness in the actor’s branch), I’m going with The King’s Speech. The momentum has shifted back and forth and I’d say it’s truly a close race–which is what we all want, right?

    I do have to disagree with you on Helena Bonham Carter, though. I think Hailee Steinfeld takes it–they obviously have a lot of love for True Grit since they gave it 10 nominations. Steinfeld and cinematography will likely be its only wins out of those 10, but it’s enough for them to feel like they’ve awarded it somewhere. It’s really a close call between Steinfeld and Melissa Leo, I’d say.

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  7. Leo wins Supporting Actress, not Steinfeld. The Academy rarely gives kids – esp. 1st-time kids – statues, and Leo gets the nod, partly as an apologia for not winning her “Frozen River” nom.

    Portman’s big threat is Benning, who will pull in the blue-hair/”it’s-her-turn” vote. Hope not, but watch out.

    Bale and Firth are locks.

    Nolan could score the screenplay prize, because of (1) the great BO/star power of his pic, and (2) the confusion caused voters by Inception, a great film they didn’t quite understand.

    Director seems Fincher’s to lose – more as a Lifetime Achivement thing than because TSN is a “great” film – but could be upstaged by Aronofsky in the quirky “Only Award – Director” thing that sometimes happens.

    Above all else, The Academy wants itself to be perceived as “relevant” (witness:Crash) so TSN probably takes the big prize. BUT if it is in fact “a defining film of our generation,” it’s a pretty sad generation indeed.

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  8. I think Best Picture’s going to go to The Kings Speech if the BAFTAS are any indication though the Social Network is not totally out of the running . I’d like to see Black Swan take home the Best Actress and Cinematography Oscar and Firth has got the Best Actor in the bag

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